It's time for Europe to join the war

It has been three years since Russia started it’s imperialist war of aggression against Ukraine. Now Europe has a choice: join the war and defeat Russia now while it is weak, or wait until an unjust peace, and face a stronger Russia, hell-bent on attacking us.

I started 2024 in a bomb shelter near Kyiv, where I drafted my thoughts about our collective failure to support Ukraine. In the article, I asserted we were already at war with Russia, and that a direct attack by Russia on Europe was inevitable.

It is now clear that I was right: Russia has already dramatically increased it’s hybrid attacks on Europe, cutting cables in the Baltic, sabotaging planes, rigging elections, destroying military production sites and even attempting to assassinate the CEO of one of Europe’s biggest defence companies.

The Eagle S, one of the ships suspected of sabotaging underground cables in the baltic.

Europe’s intelligence agencies have also clearly stated that Russia intends to attack Europe, and could be ready for a war with Europe within five years, with an unnamed European intelligence agency claiming an attack on Europe could come in 2025. In addition to this, support from the United States is no longer a given, with rumours of US troop withdrawals, and a president in the White House who is regularly siding with Putin, threatening allies, and repeating Kremlin talking points.

In last year’s article, I floated the idea that our support had come too little too late, and that we may need to intervene militarily in Ukraine. Now I believe that intervention is inevitable and necessary: If we allow Russia to win in Ukraine, or to achieve an unjust peace, it will be a matter of years before Russia attacks the European Union, leveraging its territorial gains in Ukraine, and US indifference.

NATO Troops prepare for exercises near the Suwalki Gap, one of the likely targets of a Russian attack on Europe. Picture from NATO

If we choose to wait, we are only giving Russia the time it needs to rearm and prepare to attack us, and that is exactly what Russia will do. That is the evaluation of a large number of European Intelligence Agencies, that is what Russia has been training for, that is what Russia is preparing for in terms of military production and upscaling of manufacturing, and this is what Russia’s political elite has been saying for the best part of a decade now. We can’t afford to ignore the signs.

There is a small window in which Europe could intervene in Ukraine and defeat Russia, essentially neutralising a major threat to European Security. The opportunity lies in the fact that Russia is tied down in Ukraine: it would not be able to successfully attack other European countries without losing ground in Ukraine. Europe could therefore field a reasonable deterrent force on the Borders, while deploying forces to Ukraine to help Ukrainian forces in defeating Russia.

That window is closing: the moment Russia wins or achieves an unjust peace, their next consideration will be attacking us, or breaking that peace to conquer more of Ukraine, something which will trigger a war with Europe. Now our politicians need to have the courage to do what the allies failed to do in 1938: to stop a tyrant before it is too late.